Rome: World cereal production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop by 2% year on year to 2,982 million tonnes, led by declining wheat harvests, according to FAO's latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
According to Emirates News Agency, the expected decline follows a 6.1% increase in 2025/26 to a record 3,043 million tonnes, with the marketing season coming to an end. This growth led to an estimated 9.5% increase in global cereal stocks.
World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6% in 2026/2027, slowing down from the 2.7% pace recorded in the previous season. Based on current forecasts, world cereal stocks are predicted to contract slightly, by 0.3%, due mostly to lower anticipated rice inventories, leaving the global cereal stock-to-use ratio at 31.7%, close to its earlier level.
After expanding by 4.8% in 2025/26, global cereal trade is predicted to decline by 0.3% to 507.2 million tonnes in the year ahead, as expected lower wheat and barley traded volumes more than offset foreseen increases in maize and rice shipments.